​【新刊速递】《亚洲政治学杂志》(AJPS), Vol. 32, No. 3, 2024 | 国政学人

【新刊速递】《亚洲政治学杂志》(AJPS), Vol. 32, No. 3, 2024 | 国政学人

期刊简介

《亚洲政治学杂志》（Asian Journal of Political Science，简称AJPS）自1993年创刊以来，已成为亚洲政治与治理领域的重要国际同行评审期刊。该期刊隶属于首尔国立大学亚洲中心，致力于发表高质量的原创研究论文，涵盖政治科学的主要领域，包括比较政治学、政治思想、国际关系、公共政策和公共管理，特别关注亚洲地区和国家的政治现象。该期刊旨在讨论亚洲（特别是东亚、南亚和东南亚）在地方、国家和全球层面上最具时效性的政治与行政问题。2023年该期刊的影响因子为0.6。

本期目录

1 地缘政治挑战：中韩“一带一路”框架下合作之波折分析

Geopolitical challenges: analyzing the repeated setbacks in Belt and Road Initiative cooperation between South Korea and China

2 中国“一带一路”倡议十年：从亚洲视角重估中国吸引力——基于东亚公众视角的批判性评估

Ten years of China’s BRI, reassessing China's attractiveness from an Asian perspective: a critical evaluation from the perspective of the East Asian public

3 基于清洁能源供应链韧性的视角审视“一带一路”倡议

Examining the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) from the perspective of clean energy supply chain resilience

4 集体的地方自由主义：协调地方政府与“一带一路”倡议的扩展

Collective local liberalism: orchestrated local governments and the expansion of the BRI

5 汉班托塔港的政治经济学：揭示“债务陷阱外交”与“一带一路”愿景的现实

The political economy of Hambantota port: unveiling the realities of debt trap diplomacy and BRI vision

6 构建“动态相互依赖”：中国在东盟成员国的高铁项目及其地缘政治影响

Crafting ‘dynamic interdependence’: geopolitical implications of China’s high-Speed railway projects in ASEAN member countries

内容摘要

地缘政治挑战：中韩“一带一路”框架下合作之波折分析

题目：Geopolitical challenges: analyzing the repeated setbacks in Belt and Road Initiative cooperation between South Korea and China

作者简介：徐正京（音译），首尔大学亚洲研究中心高级研究员；李贤泰，首尔大学国际研究生院副教授。

摘要：中国始终认为，“一带一路”倡议是一项开放、包容、共赢的政策，而非地缘政治操作或中国版的“马歇尔计划”。本文通过回顾过去十年来中韩在“一带一路”合作中的多次波折的研究发现，“一带一路”合作在一定程度上受到地缘政治因素的影响，并且易受到这些因素的制约。本文研究还指出，除非美国与中国在朝鲜半岛的地缘政治竞争得到一定缓解或南北朝鲜分裂的现实问题得到解决，韩国与中国在“一带一路”倡议上的对接以及“一带一路”向东北亚的扩展可能仍面临一定程度的挑战。

China has insisted that the BRI is a policy of openness, inclusiveness, and win–win rather than a geopolitical exercise or the Chinese version of the Marshall Plan. By exploring the repeated setbacks in the BRI cooperation between South Korea and China over the past 10 years, this study found that the BRI cooperation is a product of geopolitical considerations and that it is vulnerable to geopolitical conditions and factors. It also implies that unless the geopolitical rivalry between the United States and China over the Korean Peninsula is alleviated or the reality of the North–South Korea's divide is overcome, neither the alignment of South Korea's initiatives with China's BRI nor the expansion of the BRI to Northeast Asia will be easy.

中国“一带一路”倡议十年：从亚洲视角重估中国吸引力——基于东亚公众视角的批判性评估

题目：Ten years of China’s BRI, reassessing China's attractiveness from an Asian perspective: a critical evaluation from the perspective of the East Asian public

作者简介：尹钟锡，首尔市立大学中国语文化学系教授。

摘要：本文探讨了为何中国的“一带一路”倡议在过去十年中难以显著提升其在东亚地区的吸引力，并重点关注东南亚和东北亚。尽管中国在硬实力和软实力方面投入了大量资源，并采用了战略性手段，但其政策在东亚民众心中的吸引力依然有限：在东南亚，尽管各国普遍认同中国影响力的日益增强，但知识分子、公众和媒体仍存有顾虑；在东北亚，反华情绪相对较强，尤其随着中日韩民族主义情绪上升，反华情绪有所加剧。尽管中国在安全领域采取的较为积极的行动在一定程度上加剧了反华情绪，但韩国青年群体在整体负面情绪中对中国表现出相对较大的灵活性。中国“一带一路”倡议面临的挑战部分源于外界对中国体制的负面认知。正如奈所言，“软实力无法通过收买来获取，而必须通过不断努力挣得”。“一带一路”倡议要取得更大成功，中国可能需要采取更加包容和多边的合作方式，将中国梦转化为亚洲梦，以推动区域合作并提升其地区吸引力。

This paper explores why China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has not significantly increased its appeal in East Asia over the past decade, focusing on Southeast Asia and Northeast Asia. Despite substantial investments and strategic use of hard and soft power, China has not won the hearts of East Asian people. In Southeast Asia, while countries acknowledge China's growing influence, concerns persist among intellectuals, the public, and the media, with assertive Chinese actions often generating negative perceptions. In Northeast Asia, anti-China sentiments are the highest globally, exacerbated by rising nationalism in Korea, Japan, and China. Despite China's assertive behaviour, particularly in security, heightening anti-China sentiments, South Korean youth show more flexibility and interest in China despite overall negativity. China’s BRI strategies face challenges due to negative perceptions of its system. As Nye suggests, ‘soft power cannot be bought; it must be earned’. For the BRI to succeed, China needs a more inclusive, multilateral approach, transforming the Chinese Dream into an Asian Dream to enhance regional cooperation and appeal.

基于清洁能源供应链韧性的视角审视“一带一路”倡议

题目：Examining the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) from the perspective of clean energy supply chain resilience

作者简介：归泳涛，北京大学国际关系学院副院长、副教授，北京大学国际战略研究院副院长；李偲宁，北京大学国际关系学院博士研究生。

摘要：在全球经济格局经历深刻变革、供应链动荡加剧与地缘政治紧张持续升级的背景下，“一带一路”倡议在重构全球供应链体系中的关键角色日益凸显。本研究聚焦该倡议框架下重要性愈发突出的清洁能源领域，通过系统考察相关项目与实践，试图拓展既有认知，揭示其对全球清洁能源供应链韧性的影响路径。本研究认为，尽管面临多重障碍与挑战，“一带一路”项目通过改善基础设施、构建多元化路径、推动技术创新和促进多方合作协同等方面潜在增强供应链韧性。本研究还探讨了“一带一路”清洁能源项目对中国与“一带一路”合作伙伴及与西方国家关系的影响，认为这些项目通常有助于增强中国与“一带一路”国家的关系，同时也会导致中国与西方国家关系呈现正和博弈及零和博弈混合的复杂态势。

As the global economy experiences significant changes marked by increased disruptions and escalating geopolitical tensions, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is expected to assume a crucial role in reshaping global supply chains. This research adds to the existing knowledge about the BRI by looking into how it affects supply chain resilience in the clean energy sector, which is gaining new prominence within the BRI. The study examines various BRI projects and finds that despite hurdles and challenges, they can potentially boost the resilience of clean energy supply chains by improving infrastructure, creating diverse routes, fostering technological advancements, and encouraging collaboration among different stakeholders. Additionally, the research delves into how BRI clean energy projects impact China’s relationships with both BRI partner countries and Western nations. It suggests that while these projects generally benefit China’s ties with BRI countries, they can lead to a mix of positive and zero-sum games in China’s relations with the West.

集体的地方自由主义：协调地方政府与“一带一路”倡议的扩展

题目：Collective local liberalism: orchestrated local governments and the expansion of the BRI

作者简介：李明江，新加坡南洋理工大学拉惹勒南国际研究院副教授；杨斌义，新加坡南洋理工大学拉惹勒南国际研究院博士研究生。

摘要：是什么因素导致了“一带一路”倡议（BRI）项目表现各异？中央政府的作用和参与国的发展需求能否完全解释单个“一带一路”倡议项目的成败？本文挑战了占主导地位的国家中心主义观点，认为其在阐明“一带一路”项目异质性结果方面存在不足。本文通过对“泛北部湾经济合作区”（PBGECZ）和“西部陆海新通道”（ILSTC）的比较分析，探讨了地方政府合作对中国外交政策效力的影响。本文提出强调合作动态而非竞争动态的“集体地方自由主义”对“一带一路”倡议的成功发挥至关重要的作用。这一细致的方法强调了次国家行为体之间为增强“一带一路”项目的执行和成果而建立的合作框架之必要性，并为理解中国外交政策提供了更全面的视角。

What drives the varied performance of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects? Can the central state’s role and the participating nations’ development needs fully account for the success or failure of individual BRI projects? This article challenges the dominant state-centric perspective, suggesting it falls short in elucidating the heterogeneous results of BRI projects. Through a comparative analysis of the Pan-Beibu Gulf Economic Cooperation Zone (PBGECZ) and the New International Land-Sea Trade Corridor (ILSTC), the study reveals the impact of local government collaboration on the efficacy of China’s foreign policy. By proposing collective local liberalism, we argue that cooperative dynamics, rather than competitive, are crucial for the success of the BRI. This nuanced approach underscores the necessity of a collaborative framework among subnational actors to enhance the execution and outcomes of BRI projects, offering a more comprehensive understanding of Chinese foreign policy.

班托塔港的政治经济学：揭示“债务陷阱外交”与“一带一路”愿景的现实

题目：The political economy of Hambantota port: unveiling the realities of debt trap diplomacy and BRI vision

作者简介：Umesh Moramudali，斯里兰卡科伦坡大学经济学系讲师；Thilina Panduwawala，Frontier Research 的高级宏观经济学家。

摘要：本文旨在探讨汉班托塔港项目在“一带一路”倡议框架下的政治经济学，以及其被误用为“债务陷阱外交”（DTD）案例的情况。本文分析表明，港口建设早于“一带一路”倡议，它主要源于斯里兰卡国内选举政治的强烈驱动而非“一带一路”倡议的推动。然而，港口租赁是出于国内经济动机，而非政治利益。将汉班托塔港租赁给中国并非债务与股权的交换，而是对斯里兰卡外部经济脆弱性的回应，这提供了外汇流动性限制和财政约束的短期解决方案。尽管该交易并非源自“一带一路”倡议，但经常被视为“债务陷阱外交”的例子。本文通过重新确认现有文献认为，汉班托塔港并非“债务陷阱外交”的案例；并提供文本证据表明，租赁和贷款是两项不同的交易，港口租赁并非资产没收。“债务陷阱外交”的叙事主要受美国和印度的地缘政治竞争和国内政治情绪驱动。将汉班托塔港租赁误解为“债务陷阱外交”的案例研究表明了这一叙事需更多验证的必要性。

This paper aims to examine the political economy of the Hambantota Port project in the context of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and how it was used (incorrectly) as a case study for Debt Trap Diplomacy (DTD). Our analysis shows that the port construction pre-dated the BRI and was a result of strong domestic electoral political incentives, not driven by the BRI. The Port lease, however, was motivated by domestic economic incentives as opposed to domestic political gains. Leasing Hambantota port to China was not a debt-equity swap and was a response to Sri Lanka’s external economic vulnerabilities and provided a short-term solution to foreign currency liquidity constraints and fiscal constraints. Although it was not driven by BRI plans, the port deal is portrayed as an example of DTD. We reconfirm the existing literature which argues that Hambantota port is not an example for DTD and provide documentary evidence to show that lease and loan were two different transactions and port lease was not an asset seizure. DTD narrative was largely driven by geopolitical rivalries and domestic political sentiments in US and India. Misinterpreting the Hambantota Port lease as a case study provided much-needed validation for the DTD narrative.

构建“动态相互依赖”：中国在东盟成员国的高铁项目及其地缘政治影响

题目：Crafting ‘dynamic interdependence’: geopolitical implications of China’s high-Speed railway projects in ASEAN member countries

作者简介：Evi Fitriani，印度尼西亚大学国际关系系教授。

摘要：中国向东南亚国家联盟（ASEAN）邻国提供高速铁路（HSR）项目是“一带一路”倡议（BRI）中最引人注目的部分。然而，在讨论中国在基础设施合作中的生态政治利益时，东南亚国家在地缘政治竞争中的角色却遭到了忽视。因此，本文研究中国在东南亚的高铁项目以识别其地缘政治影响，特别是东盟成员国对中国经济、政治和战略竞争的影响。本文重点关注中国不断扩展的“铁路外交”以及东盟成员国和其他主要域外国家的反应。本文认为，东盟成员国并非高铁项目的被动接受者，因为它们在接受中国高铁项目时，展现出积极的主动性。事实上，高铁项目揭示了这些国家与中国以及其他主要大国之间的“动态相互依赖”。中国利用“一带一路”倡议将其铁路网络与东盟成员国连接起来，以实现经济、政治和战略目的，这产生了两方面地缘政治影响：一方面，中国与东盟成员国之间的相互依赖关系加强，因为双方必须在规划、建设和管理高速铁路方面进行合作；另一方面，东南亚国家的地缘政治自主性增强，因为美国及其盟友也在通过提供区域互联互通方案以制衡中国。

China is offering high-speed railway (HSR)—the most prominent part of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)—to neighbouring member countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). However, those countries’ agencies have been overlooked while discussing China’s eco-political interests in infrastructure cooperation. Thus, this article examines China’s HSR projects in Southeast Asia to identify their geopolitical implications, especially regarding the ASEAN member countries’ impact on China’s regional competition. It focuses on China’s expanding railway diplomacy and the reactions of ASEAN member countries and other major extra-regional countries. It argues that ASEAN member countries are not passive recipients of HSR projects, as they show significant agency toward China. Indeed, HSR projects reveal ‘dynamic interdependence’ between such countries on the one hand, and China as well as other major powers competing for regional geopolitics. China utilizing the BRI to connect ASEAN member countries with its railway network for economic, political, and strategic purposes has resulted in two geopolitical implications: interdependent relations between China and ASEAN member countries, as both sides must collaborate in planning, constructing, and managing the HSR and increased geopolitical autonomy of Southeast Asian countries, as the US and its allies also offer connectivity schemes to contain China.

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